Decision Making

Hoch, Chapter 3 discusses the power of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. The text discusses the way that researchers solve multistage problems through the application of formulas (dynamic programming models) that provide the most significant chances of success. Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use in relation to the decision making process recommendations outlined in the article. How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of today's decision? Additionally, would the conclusions reached on pages 57ff. of the text improve your decision-making? How and why?

Note: Hoch textbook has not arrived at this time.

I tend to employ a more analytical process when it comes to purchasing a large ticket item, such as a refridgerator or car.  In looking comparing various products, I tend to look at what features and long term value is offered for a particular price point.  This will help determine if I want to pay for those features or if a base model may fit our needs.  Additionally, I try to consider what the future state or condition will be upon using this product over the long term. 

Considering the case of purchasing a washing machine, I took into account how a High Efficiency(HE) machine will use much less water than a traditional washing machine even though it tends to be a much more expensive model.  This higher cost was mitigated by the fact that our neighborhood was to have water meters installed in a matter of months, so our water bill would have been greatly impacted by an older style washing machine that uses 3 times as much water as the HE machine, therefore realizing a lower operating cost over the machine's life cycle.

Of course, the influence of long term usage may not be as helpful when deciding between a mushroom burger or a patty melt...